NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Multiple supercells with large hail potential across the northern/central High Plains should evolve into a bowing cluster tonight while spreading eastward across Nebraska and eventually into Iowa by early Thursday morning. This cluster will be capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Wed (08/12)	Thu (08/13)	Fri (08/14)	Sat (08/15)	Sun (08/16)	Mon (08/17)	Tue (08/18)	Wed (08/19)
Severe	Slight	Marginal	Marginal	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Elevated	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1994-2024)

Any Severe Probabilities: 13 Aug

Sig Severe Probabilities: 13 Aug

Tornado Probabilities: 13 Aug

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 13 Aug

Severe Hail Probabilities: 13 Aug

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 13 Aug

Significant Wind Probabilities: 13 Aug

Significant Hail Probabilities: 13 Aug

More climatology data here.

2026 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: August 12 2026 12:28 UTC

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2026 Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

Page last modified: August 12 2026 12:28 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2020)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 13 Aug

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 13 Aug

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 13 Aug

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 13 Aug

More climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2026: On a Comprehensive Archive for Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6300K PDF]
Chalmers, Z. A., M. D. Parker, 2026: Variability in High-Shear, Low-CAPE QLCS Environments in the Southeastern United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [21500K PDF]
Lyons, A. D., R. L. Thompson, B. T. Smith, H. G. Weinman, and A. R. Dean, 2026: Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous U.S. Tornado Events from 2003 to 2023. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [19600K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: Leveraging Coproduction to Bridge Research and Operations in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6601K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: An Assessment of How Domain Experts Evaluate Machine Learning in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [16916K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part II: An Updated Spatial Climatology of Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [3250K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part I: Construction of the Definition and Quantitative Criteria for Identifying Future Derechos over the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5585K PDF]
Moore, A., 2024: Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6768K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Aug 11, 2026	Tornado: 4	Wind: 737	Hail: 121

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