NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat are expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon into evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and far West Texas.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Sun (08/02). See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Sat (08/01)	Sun (08/02)	Mon (08/03)	Tue (08/04)	Wed (08/05)	Thu (08/06)	Fri (08/07)	Sat (08/08)
Severe	Slight	Marginal	Slight	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Extreme	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Watches

MDs

Outlooks

Fire

Severe Weather Climatology (1994-2024)

Any Severe Probabilities: 01 Aug

Sig Severe Probabilities: 01 Aug

Tornado Probabilities: 01 Aug

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 01 Aug

Severe Hail Probabilities: 01 Aug

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 01 Aug

Significant Wind Probabilities: 01 Aug

Significant Hail Probabilities: 01 Aug

More climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


report time

Full-size plot here.

Did You Know?

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La tormenta factor de riesgo.

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Mesoanalysis

Observed Soundings

Tornado Environment Browser

Upper-Air Maps

2026 Watch Summaries

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2020)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 01 Aug

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 01 Aug

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 01 Aug

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 01 Aug

More climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2026: On a Comprehensive Archive for Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6300K PDF]
Chalmers, Z. A., M. D. Parker, 2026: Variability in High-Shear, Low-CAPE QLCS Environments in the Southeastern United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [21500K PDF]
Lyons, A. D., R. L. Thompson, B. T. Smith, H. G. Weinman, and A. R. Dean, 2026: Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous U.S. Tornado Events from 2003 to 2023. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [19600K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: Leveraging Coproduction to Bridge Research and Operations in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6601K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: An Assessment of How Domain Experts Evaluate Machine Learning in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [16916K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part II: An Updated Spatial Climatology of Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [3250K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part I: Construction of the Definition and Quantitative Criteria for Identifying Future Derechos over the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5585K PDF]
Moore, A., 2024: Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6768K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Jul 29, 2026	Tornado: 0	Wind: 106	Hail: 2

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